Manpower Global Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2012

Manpower Global Employment Outlook Survey Q4 2012

 

Manpower Group interviewed nearly 66,000 hiring managers across 42 countries and territories to measure employer hiring expectations* between October and December 2012. Employers in Finland participate in the research for the first time this quarter.

 

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is Manpower Group’s quarterly index of employer hiring confidence. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2012 as compared to the current quarter?”

 

The fourth-quarter research reveals that uncertainty in the global marketplace—particularly in Europe—as well as signals of slowdowns in India, mainland China and Brazil, is contributing to a generally weaker forecast. The overall hiring pace is expected to lose momentum on both a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis, but hiring intentions still remain positive in nearly three-quarters of the countries and territories included in the survey. However, there is little evidence of overwhelming enthusiasm on the part of employers to add to their payrolls as Outlooks improve or remain relatively stable in only 15 countries and territories when compared to Quarter 4 2011.

 

The fourth quarter results are also notable for the decline in optimism among employers in India where the hiring pace is expected to remain active despite a considerably weaker Outlook in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Meanwhile, despite pockets of resilience, hiring plans among most European employers have shifted down a gear as many remain concerned that the sovereign debt crisis threatens to drag the entire Eurozone toward another recession.

 

In the U.S., employers expect the hiring pace to remain at similarly steady levels seen throughout the past year, with positive forecasts reported by employers in all sectors and regions surveyed. Worldwide, hiring expectations are strongest in Taiwan, India and Panama where preparations for the launch of the new canal expansion project, as well as the October ratification of the Free Trade Agreement with the U.S., is resulting in hiring optimism among employers in the Commerce and the Transportation & Communications industry sectors. On the other hand, opportunities for job seekers are expected to be weakest in Greece, Italy, Finland, Ireland, Spain, Slovakia, Netherlands, Czech Republic and Poland where employers report the least optimistic—and only negative—global hiring plans.

 

In the Americas, employers from all 10 countries surveyed report positive fourth-quarter hiring intentions. Job prospects are strongest in Panama and Brazil and weakest in Argentina. Employers in Mexico report their strongest hiring plans in over four years, driven by optimism among employers in Mexico City where the Outlook is the most optimistic since the survey began there in 2002.

 

Globally, the strongest hiring plans are reported by employers in Taiwan; the hiring pace is expected to remain robust, but job prospects are trending weaker as employers scale back their hiring plans in response to a softer export market. Like their counterparts in India, employers in mainland China are reporting generally weaker hiring intentions despite an overall Outlook that remains positive in all industry sectors and regions.

 

Elsewhere, the Australian Outlook edges downward for the sixth consecutive quarter and now stands at its weakest level since Quarter 4 2009. The European debt crisis remains a persistent drag on the confidence of employers throughout much of the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region. However, job seekers may find some pockets of opportunity; viewed from a year-over-year perspective, job prospects are marginally stronger in Switzerland, Romania and Slovenia. Hiring intentions also grow slightly in the United Kingdom despite threats that the country’s double-dip recession will intensify. Elsewhere, the story is less promising. The nine negative Outlooks reported

this quarter are all from the EMEA region, with employers in Poland and Slovakia reporting negative hiring plans for the first time since starting the survey.

Survey Respondents by Region

Research for the Quarter 4 2012 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly 66,000 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide. 45% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 24% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA.

International Comparisons – Americas

Manpower Group interviewed nearly 30,000 employers from 10 countries in North, Central and South America to measure expected hiring activity in Quarter 4 2012. Positive hiring expectations for the October-December time frame are reported in each country. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to improve or remain stable in six countries both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

 

Job prospects are strongest in Panama, Brazil and Peru, and weakest in Argentina. Led by expectations of a robust hiring pace in the Commerce and Transportation & Communications sectors, prospects for Panama’s job seekers are bright and are expected to get a boost from the country’s improving position as a trade partner with the U.S., Taiwan and several European countries. The forecast matches the strongest Outlook reported in the country since the survey started.

 

While forecasts in the U.S. and Mexico remain below their historical averages, fourth-quarter hiring intentions in both countries are the most optimistic since the third quarter of 2008. The hopeful Outlook reported in the United States is unchanged quarter-over-quarter and is led by favourable hiring plans in the Wholesale & Retail Trade, Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services sectors. The fourth-quarter data reveals that for the second consecutive quarter employers in all 50 states expect jobs to increase in the next three months.

 

Meanwhile, job seekers in Mexico City can expect to benefit from the most buoyant hiring plans since the Mexican survey started in 2002. Strong demand is also reported by employers in the Transport & Communications and Mining & Extraction industry sectors. For the fourth consecutive quarter, confidence among employers in Peru’s Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector is adding fuel to the country’s solid hiring pace.

 

Meanwhile, Brazilian hiring plans decline for the second consecutive quarter and are now at the weakest level in three years. In an effort to reverse declining growth numbers, the government is proposing a second round of stimulus measures focused on the country’s transportation infrastructure. In Argentina, employer confidence falls for the sixth consecutive quarter and the generally confident employers in the country’s Mining & Construction sector report the first negative Outlook in three years. Canada’s hiring plans fall for the third consecutive quarter, but the Net Employment Outlook remains cautiously optimistic and is boosted, in part, by upbeat hiring projections in the Mining and Transportation & Public Utilities industry sectors.

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

Nearly 16,000 employers across Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and Taiwan were interviewed to measure expected fourth quarter hiring activity. Positive Outlooks are reported throughout the region with employers in Taiwan, India and New Zealand reporting the most confident hiring plans, and those in Australia reporting the weakest hiring intentions.

 

Positive Net Employment Outlooks are reported in each of the eight countries and territories. However, employer hiring plans are generally weaker and opportunities for job seekers in all countries and territories are expected to decline or remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

 

Taiwan’s robust Outlook is fuelled by expectations of a vigorous labour market in the Services sector where, in response to continuing demand in the Tourism subsector, nearly half of all employers intend to add to their workforces in the last three months of the year. Elsewhere, India’s Net Employment Outlook weakens noticeably in the fourth quarter—hiring plans decline in all seven industry sectors and in all regions in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over year comparisons, and the Net Employment Outlook is the weakest since the third quarter of 2009. However, the forecast does not indicate widespread layoffs. Instead, there are signs of a general hiring slowdown, with many IT and ITes employers indicating they will actually freeze hiring in the quarter ahead. Although 40% fewer employers say they will hire compared to three months ago, more than half expect to keep their current workforces intact through the fourth quarter and only 1% intend to reduce payrolls.

 

In mainland China, the Net Employment Outlook sinks to its weakest level in nearly three years; positive hiring plans are reported in all sectors and regions despite declines in most in quarter-over-quarter comparisons and in all when compared year-over-year. The hiring pace is expected to remain strong in the Services and Transportation & Utilities industry sectors. Regionally, hiring plans are strongest in Beijing and weakest in Chengdu despite the on-going transfer of business operations to the country’s inland and western regions in response to growing operational costs in the coastal areas and sluggish overseas demand.

 

Japan’s Net Employment Outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite moderate declines both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in the country’s important Manufacturing sector. And in Australia, employer hiring plans soften for the sixth consecutive quarter, depressing job prospects to the weakest level since the fourth quarter of 2009.

International Comparisons – EMEA

More than 20,000 employers across 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region were interviewed to gauge anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 4 2012. Employers in Finland participate in Manpower Group’s labour market research for the first time in the fourth quarter.

 

Fourth-quarter hiring expectations are positive in only 13 of 24 countries with Net Employment Outlooks improving or remaining stable from three months ago in 13 labour markets. The year-over-year analysis also reveals that many employers are scaling back their hiring plans; job prospects weaken in 15 labour markets, and employers in nine European countries report negative hiring intentions for the last three months of the year. Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in Turkey, Romania, Israel and Norway and weakest in Greece and Italy.

 

Despite on-going instability in the Eurozone, the French, German and UK labour markets exhibit some resiliency and hiring intentions remain relatively stable compared to three months ago. However, the fourth-quarter research reveals a weakening trend throughout the region in the Manufacturing sector, with hiring set to slow in 17 of the 24 countries. This projected slowdown is most evident in Poland where twice as many employers expect to shed staff compared to three months ago.

 

Elsewhere, hiring optimism among Turkish employers is boosted by a considerably improved forecast in the Pharmaceutical sector in anticipation of a brisk fourth quarter hiring pace. In Norway, the petroleum sector continues to drive labour demand. Engineers are in particularly short supply, and employers in this sector, as well as those in Healthcare and Services have found it necessary to routinely recruit from abroad to secure the talent they need. Opportunities for job seekers in Switzerland are also expected to improve in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons, driven, in part, by three consecutive quarters of steady improvement in the country’s Wholesale & Retail Trade sector.